A weekly newsletter with science-based insights on creativity, mindful productivity, better thinking and lifelong learning.
Ness Labs: Levels of Thinking 🪜
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Edition #235 – August 1st, 2024 Hello friends, We make many decisions everyday, some small, some big. While we might overthink it sometimes, we make a lot of these choices automatically, without considering the long-term consequences. This week, you’ll learn about a useful mental model and the 10-10-10 tool for smarter decision-making. I use it anytime I’m faced with a fairly important decision, so I can make sure how I feel today will stay aligned with how I’ll feel tomorrow. I hope you find it as helpful as I do. Also, a little book update. I’m putting together an exclusive behind-the-scenes resource as a preorder bonus, which will include absolutely everything I learned while writing the book – idea, proposal, research, creative process, feedback management, and more – and I want to make sure I’m not missing anything. So if you have any questions about book writing and publishing, let me know. Thank you, and enjoy the read! Anne-Laure. P.S. Some good news came this morning! A paper I started working on two years ago just got published. It’s all about the relationship between ADHD and curiosity from an evolutionary perspective, and it’s available in open access here if you’re interested.
Levels of ThinkingSkipping meals to save time, but finding yourself exhausted and unproductive by the afternoon. Choosing a cheaper apartment to save money, but the long commute ends up costing you time and energy. You tried to make the most sensible choice, and yet… What went wrong? It’s easy to get carried away when making a decision. We look at the current situation and extrapolate what we consider to be the most likely future outcome. But we often fail to consider the complex ramifications of the decisions we make. For instance, let’s say you’re offered a job with an attractive salary, and you accept it immediately without considering the company’s culture or long-term career prospects. This quick decision based on immediate benefits is an example of first-level thinking. Now, imagine you pause, consider the job offer not just for its salary but also for the growth opportunities and work-life balance. This more deliberate decision is an example of second-level thinking. Those terms were coined by Howard Marks in his book The Most Important Thing, which describes his investment philosophy and his insights into navigating volatile markets:
“First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future (…) Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.” — Howard Marks, Investor & Writer. First-level thinking often results in snapshot decisions. We just look at the information in front of us and other obvious indicators, and we make our choice. This is a perfectly natural reaction, but more often than not we don’t need to make decisions that quickly. The pitfalls of first-level thinkingThink about a recent decision you made—did you consider the second-level consequences? Making decisions based on immediate outcomes might seem efficient, but it ignores the complex interconnections of real-life situations. This is why first-level thinking can lead to decisions that feel good in the moment but have unintended outcomes. Prioritizing immediate rewards over sustainable growth can lead to poor long-term outcomes. Focusing only on the obvious benefits while overlooking potential hidden costs can result in financial strain. Making decisions without considering the ethical ramifications can damage your reputation and relationships in the long run. On the other hand, second-level thinking can result in extraordinary performance. When we take the time to consider the second and third order consequences, including our own biases, disentangling the signal from the noise, we’re more likely to determine the most favorable decision. How to cultivate second-level thinkingIn his book, Howard Marks shares a few questions you can ask yourself to move away from superficial first-level thinking and into more complex second-level thinking. I slightly edited them to make them applicable outside of investing.
You can also apply second-level thinking to personal decisions. In that case, comparing your prediction to what most other people think—the consensus—may not be as useful. Instead, you can use the following 10-10-10 questions:
These will encourage you to go beyond first order consequences and to consider the complex and sometimes unwanted effects of your choices. By cultivating this habit, you’ll end up making smarter decisions in the long run. ⚡ Brain Picks• NodeLand transforms note-taking into mind-mapping, a perfect tool for personal knowledge management enthusiasts. Integrated with GPT-4, it provides quick explanations, making learning more efficient and enhancing retention. Subscribe and start visualizing notes as mind maps. Traditional note-taking is over. • The Daily Upside is a free investing newsletter created by Wall Street insiders and bankers that delivers actionable insights. And the best part? It’s completely free. Join 1M+ readers and subscribe today. • Meco is a newsletter aggregator built for reading. Time to liberate your inbox. Move your newsletters to a space built for reading and declutter your reading experience in seconds. Many thanks to our sponsors for supporting the newsletter. Want to feature your product here? Email joe@nesslabs.com 💌 🤝 Brain TrustIf you enjoy the newsletter, you'll love our community of curious minds who grow together through interactive workshops and safe discussion spaces. Here is what you can learn this week: All of these and future events are included in the price of the annual membership ($49), as well as access to the recordings of all our previous sessions and past cohort-based courses. 🌊 Brain WavesHave a friend who wants to make the most of their mind? Send them the newsletter using your unique referral link below and unlock Reflective Minds, a database of good questions from great thinkers and creators. Take care! P.S. This is the #1 trait I hire for. What’s yours? |
​Ness Labs by Anne-Laure Le Cunff
A weekly newsletter with science-based insights on creativity, mindful productivity, better thinking and lifelong learning.
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